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Cotes bookmakers vs modèle
Pour chaque match upcoming des Big 5 : médiane des cotes (région UE, ~40 bookmakers, 4 français) avec proba implicite après dévignage, comparée à la prédiction Dixon-Coles. C'est une lecture comparée, pas une recommandation (cf. méthodologie).
Cotes intéressantes
Top 5 value bets modèle vs marché ≥5 pt
Real Betis vs Real Madrid
ven. 4 sept. 21:00 · Liga · sur le 2
+23 pt
@ 1.35
AS Roma vs Atalanta BC
sam. 5 sept. 20:45 · SerA · sur le 1
+14 pt
@ 1.67
Troyes vs Strasbourg
dim. 6 sept. 15:00 · L1 · sur le 2
+13 pt
@ 2.25
Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton
sam. 12 sept. 18:30 · PL · sur le 1
+11 pt
@ 1.92
Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano
dim. 13 sept. 21:00 · Liga · sur le 1
+11 pt
@ 1.11
Plus grosses cotes
Top 5 cotes ≥3.5 sur un outcome
Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano
dim. 13 sept. 21:00 · Liga · sur le 2
14.38
Modèle 10%
FC Schalke 04 vs Bayern Munich
sam. 5 sept. 18:30 · BL · sur le 1
13.00
—
Manchester City vs Coventry City
sam. 5 sept. 16:00 · PL · sur le 2
12.50
—
Elversberg vs Bayern Munich
dim. 13 sept. 17:30 · BL · sur le 1
11.13
—
Como vs Parma
dim. 13 sept. 15:00 · SerA · sur le 2
10.00
Modèle 12%
103 matchs à venir, 83 avec prédiction modèle (20 skipped — équipe inconnue du train).
Ligue 1 (18)
| Date | Domicile | Extérieur | 1X2 — Marché (dévigné) vs Modèle | BM | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | ||||
| jeu. 3 sept. 20:45 | Toulouse | Lille | 27% 31% +3.3 | 28% 28% +0.5 | 45% 41% -3.8 | 23(4🇫🇷) |
| ven. 4 sept. 19:00 | Lyon | Auxerre | 63% 58% -4.3 | 21% 24% +2.4 | 16% 18% +1.9 | 23(4🇫🇷) |
| ven. 4 sept. 21:05 | Paris Saint Germain | AS Monaco | 67% 67% -0.5 | 18% 18% +0.0 | 15% 15% +0.5 | 23(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 5 sept. 17:15 | RC Lens | Lorient | 65% 58% -6.4 | 20% 23% +2.6 | 15% 19% +3.8 | 23(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 5 sept. 20:45 | Le Havre | Brest | 37% 34% -2.8 | 29% 27% -1.5 | 35% 39% +4.3 | 23(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 5 sept. 20:45 | Nice | Le Mans FC | 53% — | 26% — | 22% — | 23(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 6 sept. 15:00 | Troyes | Strasbourg | 31% 22% -8.9 | 28% 23% -4.6 | 41% 55% +13.5 | 23(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 6 sept. 17:15 | Angers | Rennes | 24% 22% -2.1 | 24% 26% +1.1 | 52% 53% +1.0 | 23(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 6 sept. 20:45 | Marseille | Paris FC | 54% 56% +2.0 | 24% 22% -1.4 | 23% 22% -0.6 | 23(4🇫🇷) |
| ven. 11 sept. 20:45 | Rennes | Marseille | 41% 42% +0.6 | 25% 23% -1.5 | 34% 35% +0.9 | 18(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 12 sept. 17:15 | Strasbourg | AS Monaco | 31% 40% +8.8 | 25% 24% -0.5 | 44% 36% -8.3 | 18(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 12 sept. 20:45 | Auxerre | Nice | 39% 37% -2.0 | 28% 28% -0.0 | 32% 34% +2.0 | 18(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 12 sept. 20:45 | Lorient | Toulouse | 38% 41% +2.8 | 28% 26% -2.3 | 34% 33% -0.5 | 18(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 12 sept. 20:45 | Paris FC | Lyon | 36% 33% -2.2 | 27% 25% -1.1 | 38% 41% +3.3 | 18(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 12 sept. 20:45 | Le Havre | Angers | 43% 44% +0.6 | 28% 31% +2.1 | 29% 26% -2.8 | 18(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 13 sept. 15:00 | Lille | Troyes | 66% 73% +7.0 | 20% 18% -2.5 | 14% 9% -4.5 | 18(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 13 sept. 17:15 | Le Mans FC | RC Lens | 19% — | 22% — | 59% — | 17(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 13 sept. 20:45 | Brest | Paris Saint Germain | 13% 16% +2.8 | 17% 20% +2.6 | 70% 64% -5.4 | 17(4🇫🇷) |
La Liga (24)
| Date | Domicile | Extérieur | 1X2 — Marché (dévigné) vs Modèle | BM | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | ||||
| jeu. 3 sept. 21:00 | Real Sociedad | Celta Vigo | 49% 43% -6.2 | 26% 24% -2.3 | 24% 33% +8.5 | 21(4🇫🇷) |
| ven. 4 sept. 21:00 | Real Betis | Real Madrid | 13% 30% +16.1 | 18% 24% +6.6 | 69% 46% -22.6 | 20(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 5 sept. 16:15 | Athletic Bilbao | Atlético Madrid | 32% 32% -0.3 | 27% 27% -0.3 | 41% 42% +0.7 | 20(3🇫🇷) |
| sam. 5 sept. 18:30 | Rayo Vallecano | Real Racing Club de Santander | 43% — | 27% — | 30% — | 21(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 5 sept. 21:00 | Villarreal | Deportivo La Coruña | 63% — | 21% — | 15% — | 21(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 6 sept. 16:15 | Valencia | Barcelona | 11% 15% +3.8 | 15% 19% +3.8 | 74% 66% -7.6 | 21(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 6 sept. 18:30 | Málaga | Levante | 39% — | 29% — | 32% — | 21(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 6 sept. 18:30 | Alavés | CA Osasuna | 42% 40% -1.9 | 30% 27% -3.4 | 28% 33% +5.4 | 21(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 6 sept. 21:00 | Espanyol | Sevilla | 41% 44% +3.3 | 30% 26% -3.5 | 29% 29% +0.1 | 21(4🇫🇷) |
| lun. 7 sept. 19:00 | Getafe | Celta Vigo | 38% 34% -4.1 | 33% 32% -1.0 | 30% 35% +5.1 | 20(4🇫🇷) |
| lun. 7 sept. 21:30 | Elche CF | Real Sociedad | 33% 43% +9.5 | 27% 24% -3.7 | 39% 34% -5.8 | 20(4🇫🇷) |
| ven. 11 sept. 21:00 | Sevilla | Valencia | 40% 43% +3.3 | 30% 27% -3.1 | 31% 31% -0.2 | 13(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 12 sept. 14:00 | Real Racing Club de Santander | Alavés | 39% — | 28% — | 33% — | 16(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 12 sept. 16:15 | CA Osasuna | Espanyol | 49% 53% +3.9 | 27% 25% -2.1 | 24% 22% -1.8 | 13(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 12 sept. 18:30 | Athletic Bilbao | Elche CF | 58% 52% -5.7 | 24% 24% +0.3 | 18% 24% +5.4 | 14(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 13 sept. 21:00 | CA Osasuna | Espanyol | 49% 53% +3.4 | 27% 25% -2.2 | 23% 22% -1.3 | 4 |
| dim. 13 sept. 21:00 | Celta Vigo | Málaga | 54% — | 26% — | 20% — | 16(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 13 sept. 21:00 | Real Sociedad | Atlético Madrid | 31% 32% +1.0 | 26% 24% -1.3 | 44% 44% +0.3 | 15(3🇫🇷) |
| dim. 13 sept. 21:00 | Getafe | Deportivo La Coruña | 44% — | 31% — | 24% — | 15(3🇫🇷) |
| dim. 13 sept. 21:00 | Levante | Barcelona | 12% 12% +0.6 | 15% 16% +1.4 | 74% 72% -2.0 | 16(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 13 sept. 21:00 | Athletic Bilbao | Elche CF | 60% 52% -7.5 | 24% 24% +0.3 | 17% 24% +7.2 | 3 |
| dim. 13 sept. 21:00 | Villarreal | Real Betis | 49% 56% +6.3 | 25% 21% -3.5 | 26% 23% -2.8 | 13(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 13 sept. 21:00 | Sevilla | Valencia | 40% 43% +2.5 | 30% 27% -3.8 | 29% 31% +1.3 | 4 |
| dim. 13 sept. 21:00 | Real Madrid | Rayo Vallecano | 82% 71% -11.3 | 12% 19% +7.3 | 6% 10% +4.0 | 16(4🇫🇷) |
Bundesliga (18)
| Date | Domicile | Extérieur | 1X2 — Marché (dévigné) vs Modèle | BM | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | ||||
| ven. 4 sept. 20:30 | VfB Stuttgart | 1. FC Köln | 63% 67% +3.9 | 20% 18% -1.8 | 17% 15% -2.1 | 24(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 5 sept. 15:30 | Bayer Leverkusen | Union Berlin | 66% 69% +3.6 | 19% 19% -0.1 | 15% 12% -3.5 | 24(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 5 sept. 15:30 | Werder Bremen | RB Leipzig | 25% 24% -0.9 | 23% 24% +1.5 | 53% 52% -0.6 | 24(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 5 sept. 15:30 | SC Paderborn | SC Freiburg | 28% — | 26% — | 46% — | 24(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 5 sept. 15:30 | Borussia Monchengladbach | Elversberg | 52% — | 24% — | 24% — | 24(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 5 sept. 15:30 | TSG Hoffenheim | Borussia Dortmund | 33% 28% -5.0 | 25% 23% -2.0 | 43% 50% +7.0 | 24(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 5 sept. 18:30 | FC Schalke 04 | Bayern Munich | 7% — | 11% — | 82% — | 24(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 6 sept. 15:30 | Hamburger SV | FSV Mainz 05 | 34% 35% +0.7 | 26% 28% +1.9 | 40% 37% -2.6 | 24(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 6 sept. 17:30 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Augsburg | 49% 52% +3.0 | 24% 23% -0.4 | 27% 24% -2.6 | 24(4🇫🇷) |
| ven. 11 sept. 20:30 | Union Berlin | FC Schalke 04 | 46% — | 25% — | 29% — | 18(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 12 sept. 15:30 | Borussia Dortmund | SC Paderborn | 75% — | 15% — | 10% — | 18(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 12 sept. 15:30 | FSV Mainz 05 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 45% 40% -4.6 | 25% 25% +0.1 | 30% 35% +4.5 | 18(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 12 sept. 15:30 | TSG Hoffenheim | VfB Stuttgart | 40% 35% -5.3 | 25% 22% -2.3 | 35% 43% +7.5 | 18(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 12 sept. 15:30 | Augsburg | Bayer Leverkusen | 22% 22% +0.2 | 22% 23% +1.4 | 56% 55% -1.7 | 18(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 12 sept. 15:30 | SC Freiburg | Borussia Monchengladbach | 49% 44% -5.0 | 25% 26% +0.9 | 26% 30% +4.1 | 18(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 12 sept. 18:30 | 1. FC Köln | Werder Bremen | 46% 42% -3.9 | 26% 26% +0.5 | 28% 32% +3.4 | 18(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 13 sept. 15:30 | RB Leipzig | Hamburger SV | 69% 63% -5.9 | 18% 21% +3.7 | 14% 16% +2.2 | 18(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 13 sept. 17:30 | Elversberg | Bayern Munich | 8% — | 12% — | 80% — | 17(4🇫🇷) |
Serie A (23)
| Date | Domicile | Extérieur | 1X2 — Marché (dévigné) vs Modèle | BM | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | ||||
| ven. 4 sept. 20:45 | Genoa | Como | 20% 21% +1.0 | 28% 27% -1.2 | 52% 52% +0.2 | 24(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 5 sept. 15:00 | Fiorentina | Torino | 50% 47% -2.9 | 28% 27% -1.5 | 22% 26% +4.3 | 24(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 5 sept. 18:00 | Inter Milan | Napoli | 57% 57% -0.3 | 25% 23% -1.9 | 17% 20% +2.2 | 24(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 5 sept. 20:45 | AS Roma | Atalanta BC | 55% 41% -14.3 | 25% 28% +2.7 | 19% 31% +11.5 | 24(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 6 sept. 15:00 | Parma | Monza | 39% 47% +8.0 | 30% 30% -0.6 | 30% 23% -7.5 | 24(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 6 sept. 15:00 | Frosinone | Venezia | 34% 40% +5.5 | 28% 28% +0.1 | 38% 32% -5.5 | 24(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 6 sept. 18:00 | Bologna | Sassuolo | 47% 44% -3.3 | 28% 27% -0.7 | 25% 29% +4.0 | 24(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 6 sept. 20:45 | Juventus | AC Milan | 46% 46% +0.1 | 28% 29% +0.5 | 26% 26% -0.6 | 24(4🇫🇷) |
| lun. 7 sept. 18:30 | Cagliari | Lecce | 48% 45% -3.7 | 29% 32% +2.7 | 23% 24% +1.0 | 24(4🇫🇷) |
| lun. 7 sept. 20:45 | Udinese | Lazio | 32% 34% +2.1 | 30% 29% -1.0 | 38% 37% -1.1 | 24(4🇫🇷) |
| ven. 11 sept. 20:45 | Venezia | Fiorentina | 35% 26% -9.4 | 28% 29% +0.6 | 37% 46% +8.8 | 18(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 12 sept. 15:00 | Genoa | Frosinone | 52% 53% +1.0 | 27% 25% -1.9 | 21% 22% +0.9 | 18(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 12 sept. 18:00 | Sassuolo | Juventus | 17% 21% +4.5 | 24% 26% +2.3 | 59% 52% -6.8 | 12(3🇫🇷) |
| sam. 12 sept. 18:00 | Lazio | AC Milan | 28% 32% +3.7 | 29% 29% +0.3 | 43% 39% -4.0 | 13(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 12 sept. 20:45 | Atalanta BC | Cagliari | 62% 65% +3.5 | 22% 21% -1.1 | 16% 13% -2.4 | 18(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 13 sept. 12:30 | Torino | AS Roma | 20% 19% -1.4 | 27% 25% -2.4 | 53% 57% +3.7 | 13(3🇫🇷) |
| dim. 13 sept. 15:00 | Como | Parma | 74% 65% -8.9 | 17% 23% +6.0 | 9% 12% +2.9 | 13(3🇫🇷) |
| dim. 13 sept. 15:00 | Lecce | Monza | 42% 39% -3.0 | 29% 33% +4.1 | 29% 28% -1.1 | 18(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 13 sept. 18:00 | Napoli | Bologna | 57% 52% -4.9 | 25% 26% +0.9 | 18% 22% +4.0 | 17(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 13 sept. 20:45 | Sassuolo | Juventus | 17% 21% +4.3 | 23% 26% +2.8 | 59% 52% -7.1 | 13(4🇫🇷) |
| lun. 14 sept. 18:30 | Torino | AS Roma | 18% 19% +0.8 | 26% 25% -1.1 | 56% 57% +0.3 | 13(4🇫🇷) |
| lun. 14 sept. 18:30 | Como | Parma | 70% 65% -4.9 | 19% 23% +3.8 | 11% 12% +1.0 | 13(4🇫🇷) |
| lun. 14 sept. 20:45 | Inter Milan | Udinese | 72% 74% +1.7 | 17% 16% -0.9 | 11% 10% -0.7 | 16(4🇫🇷) |
Premier League (20)
| Date | Domicile | Extérieur | 1X2 — Marché (dévigné) vs Modèle | BM | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | ||||
| ven. 4 sept. 21:00 | Ipswich Town | Liverpool | 18% — | 20% — | 61% — | 25(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 5 sept. 13:30 | Newcastle United | Bournemouth | 44% 44% +0.1 | 26% 26% +0.1 | 31% 30% -0.1 | 25(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 5 sept. 16:00 | Brentford | Sunderland | 60% 49% -10.1 | 23% 29% +5.3 | 17% 22% +4.8 | 25(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 5 sept. 16:00 | Brighton and Hove Albion | Leeds United | 49% 48% -1.2 | 26% 27% +0.2 | 24% 25% +1.0 | 25(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 5 sept. 16:00 | Manchester City | Coventry City | 80% — | 12% — | 7% — | 25(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 5 sept. 16:00 | Fulham | Crystal Palace | 41% 41% +0.0 | 28% 30% +2.4 | 31% 29% -2.4 | 25(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 5 sept. 16:00 | Nottingham Forest | Tottenham Hotspur | 39% 50% +10.4 | 27% 26% -1.4 | 33% 24% -9.0 | 25(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 5 sept. 18:30 | Hull City | Aston Villa | 24% — | 26% — | 51% — | 25(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 6 sept. 15:00 | Everton | Manchester United | 31% 36% +5.4 | 27% 29% +2.4 | 43% 35% -7.8 | 25(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 6 sept. 17:30 | Arsenal | Chelsea | 56% 64% +7.7 | 25% 23% -1.7 | 19% 13% -6.0 | 25(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 12 sept. 16:00 | Crystal Palace | Ipswich Town | 50% — | 26% — | 24% — | 17(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 12 sept. 16:00 | Chelsea | Hull City | 75% — | 15% — | 10% — | 17(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 12 sept. 16:00 | Liverpool | Fulham | 64% 58% -5.9 | 19% 24% +4.1 | 17% 19% +1.8 | 17(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 12 sept. 16:00 | Aston Villa | Nottingham Forest | 49% 41% -7.4 | 26% 28% +2.2 | 25% 31% +5.3 | 17(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 12 sept. 16:00 | Bournemouth | Brentford | 37% 43% +6.0 | 27% 27% -0.1 | 36% 30% -5.8 | 17(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 12 sept. 18:30 | Tottenham Hotspur | Everton | 48% 36% -11.3 | 27% 28% +1.8 | 26% 35% +9.6 | 17(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 12 sept. 21:00 | Sunderland | Arsenal | 15% 14% -1.2 | 23% 27% +4.3 | 62% 59% -3.1 | 17(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 13 sept. 15:00 | Coventry City | Brighton and Hove Albion | 22% — | 25% — | 53% — | 17(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 13 sept. 17:30 | Manchester United | Manchester City | 31% 24% -6.8 | 25% 26% +0.7 | 44% 50% +6.2 | 17(4🇫🇷) |
| lun. 14 sept. 21:00 | Leeds United | Newcastle United | 38% 38% -0.4 | 27% 27% -0.5 | 35% 36% +0.9 | 17(4🇫🇷) |
Comment lire ce tableau ?
- Pour chaque issue (1 / X / 2), trois nombres : marché dévigné (proba implicite des cotes après suppression de la marge bookmaker) en gris ; modèle en gras ; écart modèle-marché en %.
- Un écart vert (modèle plus optimiste) = cote sous-estimée par le marché selon Dixon-Coles. Un écart rouge = surévaluée. Un écart proche de 0 = consensus.
- L'écart attendu pour un baseline N1 sans contexte est de l'ordre de ±3 % (cf. méthodologie / robustesse). Au-delà, l'écart peut refléter soit un signal manqué par le modèle (compositions, blessures), soit une vraie inefficience locale du marché.
- Cette page est un outil d'aide à la décision, pas une recommandation de pari (ADR-004).
Cotes mises à jour le mer. 2 sept. 17:28.